HomePeoplePlaylistCollection
Geo-Strategy: Predicting the Future

Geo-Strategy #7: Who Killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi?

Jiang Xue QinJiang Xue QinApr 16, 2026

On May 19th, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter crashed in dense fog, killing all nine occupants, including the foreign minister. While the official narrative attributes the tragedy to bad weather and an aging American helicopter from the 1970s, a deeper game theory analysis suggests a more complex possibility. The incident occurred as Raisi was widely expected to succeed the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, a succession that could have dramatically altered the balance of power within the Islamic Republic. The critical question emerges: was this a tragic accident, or a calculated move in Iran's opaque internal power struggle, potentially orchestrated by factions seeking to preserve their entrenched influence?

Youtube

More from Jiang Xue Qin

  • Civilization #15: The Myth-Making Genius of Julius Caesar

    Published 2 days ago

    Despite his unparalleled military victories and sweeping reforms designed to restore stability to Rome, Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BCE by his closest friends and allies. His radical success in shaping a new vision for the Republic inadvertently generated profound discomfort and anxiety among the old guard. Caesar's attempts to 'make Rome great again' by crafting a new reality challenged deeply ingrained Roman identities and traditions, creating an unresolvable tension that ultimately led to his violent demise.

    Jiang Xue Qin·The Story of "Civilization"
  • Geo-Strategy #11: The Second American Civil War

    Published 6 days ago

    Four of the world's five most powerful air forces are branches of the United States military—the Air Force, Navy, Army, and Marines—dwarfing all other nations save Russia at third place. This staggering over-militarization reflects a deeper American affinity for violence, a trait embedded in its historical conflicts from the 1776 Revolution to its deadliest war, the 1861 Civil War, which claimed up to a million lives. Today, with national narratives crumbling, institutions losing all credibility, and profound societal divisions deepening, this inherent inclination for violent resolution threatens to ignite a second, far more chaotic civil war. Can a nation so steeped in conflict find a path to unity when its foundational bonds are dissolving?

    Jiang Xue Qin·Geo-Strategy: Predicting the Future
  • Geo-Strategy #10: Putin's Strategic Imagination

    Published 6 days ago

    Alarmingly, a quarter of young Americans now reportedly view Osama bin Laden as a positive figure, a stark illustration of the deep civil dissent fracturing the nation. This erosion of binding myths, coupled with significant foreign policy overextension in conflicts like Ukraine and Gaza, and a soaring national debt of $35 trillion, exposes what some identify as critical vulnerabilities of the American Empire. Against this backdrop, a compelling argument suggests that Vladimir Putin is not merely reacting to events but orchestrating a sophisticated, multi-front strategy to accelerate America’s decline. But what allows Russian leaders to conceive and execute such long-term, counterintuitive geopolitical maneuvers, seemingly invisible to a West bound by different strategic principles?

    Jiang Xue Qin·Geo-Strategy: Predicting the Future